Tesla (TSLA) will report its third-quarter deliveries over the weekend or by early next week, as chip shortages likely constrained production and deliveries. Tesla stock is in buy range.
“To this point, we believe the chip shortage markedly constrained supply and deliveries in the months of July and August (estimating roughly 80k-90k deliveries) but is on a massive trajectory in the month of September based on our analysis that should approach the 145k-150k range with China a major swing factor,” said Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives in a Sept. 28 note.
While logistics in Europe remain complex given that most of the Model 3 and Y vehicles are coming from Giga in China, Ives said Tesla could approach 230,000 deliveries in the quarter. FactSet analyst estimates range from 218,000 to 246,000, with the consensus at 232,000.
Tesla delivered the Model Y in Europe for the first time in the third quarter, the last major market for its lineup. Its Shanghai plant exported the bulk of its July-August production of Model 3 and Y vehicles, primarily to Europe.
Tesla reports quarterly sales within the first three business days of the following quarter. They could come on Friday, over the weekend or even as late as Tuesday and still meet that threshold.
“The pace of EV deliveries in the U.S. and China have been robust the last 4-6 weeks with an eye-popping growth trajectory heading into 4Q and 2022,” Ives wrote.
He figures the chip shortage will take around 40,000 units off Tesla’s annual delivery number, which should still approach roughly 890,000-900,000 in a bull-case scenario.
The EV maker delivered 201,250 vehicles in Q2, up from the prior record of 184,800 in Q1 and 90,900 a year ago. That basically met FactSet estimates, which ranged from 193,000 to 231,000.
Tesla produced 206,421 vehicles, including 204,081 Model 3 and Model Y EVs, and 2,340 Model S and X vehicles.
In July, Tesla began long-delayed deliveries of the Model S Plaid, the revamped version of the luxury sedan, but those weren’t expected to ramp up quickly.
Its relative strength line is trending up, according to MarketSmith. Tesla’s RS Rating is 85 out of a best-possible 99, while its EPS Rating is 72. With a Composite Rating of 97, Tesla ranks No. 2 in IBD’s auto manufacturers group. Tesla is a Leaderboard stock.
GM and Ford, like most automakers, have slashed overall auto production due to chip shortages. GM’s Q3 sales fell more sharply than expected. Ford has yet to report.
Recent IPO Lucid Motors (LCID) lost 3%. LCID stock has run up in the past few weeks in anticipation of deliveries. Late Tuesday, the U.S.-based EV startup began production of its 520-mile-range Lucid Air, with deliveries starting in late October.
Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto beat Q3 delivery forecasts on Friday, despite chip shortages.
Tesla FSD Beta, Events
Tesla will hold its annual shareholder meeting on Oct. 7 at its Austin, Texas, factory. On Oct. 9, it’ll hold an event at its plant outside Berlin. Those events could drop hints on when Tesla will begin producing cars from those sites, significantly boosting capacity.
Meanwhile, Tesla plans to begin opening FSD Beta to more Full Self-Driving owners and subscribers as of Oct. 8.
Follow Adelia Cellini Linecker on Twitter @IBD_Adelia.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: