GM Auto Sales To Show Big Q4 Drop As This Milestone Looms

 GM Auto Sales To Show Big Q4 Drop As This Milestone Looms

General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F) and Stellantis (STLA) will tee up to report U.S. auto sales for December and the fourth quarter, with chip headwinds seen modestly easing in the new year. GM stock popped Monday, flashing a buy signal as Ford hit a long-term high.


Toyota Motor (TM) and Honda Motor (HMC) also report Q4 and December sales.

In 2021, Toyota is expected to surpass GM as the top U.S. automaker for the first time. The milestone for the Japanese automaker comes after it managed tight supplies from the chip shortage better than most rivals, with solid sales for both its Toyota and Lexus brands.

Pace of U.S. Auto Sales To Sharply Slow

The annualized pace of new vehicle sales in December is expected to reach 13 million, according to J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. That would be down 3.5 million units from a year ago and up a modest 200 million units from November.

Cox Automotive pegs the December pace of auto sales, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), even lower, near 11.4 million.

Chip Shortages, Vehicle Inventories

Heading into 2022, analysts see the hit to auto production and sales from the global chip shortage improving.

“But it will take time to restock the shelves at dealerships,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough.

In the current first quarter, Chesbrough expects “modest gains” in new vehicle sales. By the second half of 2022, “a much more robust market should emerge,” he said.

Thomas King, president of data and analytics at J.D. Power, said slight improvements in vehicle shipments will be offset by pent-up consumer demand, keeping inventories near historic lows. For car stocks, “2022 is likely to be another year of record-setting pricing and profitability,” King said.

Here is how automakers performed in Q4 2021 vs. expectations. The results show sales volume, as well as volume growth or decline.

Toyota Motor

Q4 2021 sales estimate: 459,329, down 30.5% vs. Q4 2020 and down 24% vs. Q4 2019.

Results: Check back later.

Toyota stock edged up 0.5% to 186.29 Monday, holding in range from a 182.94 buy point.

General Motors

Q4 2021 sales estimate: 414,544, down 46% vs. Q4 2020 and down 43% vs. Q4 2019.

Results: Check back later.

GM stock rose 4.3% to 61.17 on the stock market today, rebounding above the 50-day line and coming up to a trendline break. Analysts at Goldman Sachs named GM an EV stock to buy into 2022, along with Tesla (TSLA). On Wednesday, GM is set to reveal its Silverado pickup electric truck, along with Q4 auto sales results.

Ford Motor

Q4 2021 sales estimate: 507,695, down 6% vs. Q4 2020 and down 15% vs. Q4 2019.

Results: Check back later.

Ford stock popped 4.8% to 21.77, hitting a 20-year high.

Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler

Q4 2021 sales estimate: 395,605, down 21% vs. Q4 2020 and down 27% vs. Q4 2019.

Results: Check back later.

Stellantis stock climbed 4.2% to 19.54, moving above its 50-day line.

Honda Motor

Q4 2021 sales estimate: 278,625, down 24% vs. Q4 2020 and down 31% vs. Q4 2019.

Results: Check back later.

Honda Motor stock advanced 1.3% to 28.82, back above its 50-day line but well below its 200-day.

Find Aparna Narayanan on Twitter at @IBD_Aparna.


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